UMass experts pin election results on economy
Published: 11-24-2024 6:34 PM |
AMHERST — Why did the American people elect Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, and not Kamala Harris? Is the status of the nation’s democracy in peril? And where do the American people as a nation go from here?
These were some of the questions discussed at a panel of political science professors at UMass Amherst last Thursday, titled “After the Election: The Work of Democracy Continues.” More than 100 people attended the event, which was held in the Amherst Room of the UMass Campus Center building.
The panel consisted of three professors: associate professors of political science Amel Ahmed and Alex Theodoridis, as well as Cedric de Leon, professor of sociology and labor studies. The panel was moderated by Dean Robinson, the chair of the university’s political science department.
The panelists took questions from both Robinson and the audience on what the elections results signify for the state of the nation, although they were far from uniform in their viewpoints. For Ahmed, she said that despite previous concerns over Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent, the 2024 election did show some positive signs for democracy, due to Trump having won the popular vote this time, unlike in 2016 when he first became president.
“People were very, very worried that the Republican Party would become a permanent minority and would turn against democracy,” Ahmed said. “The popular vote win, we can interpret it in a lot of different ways, but that was a real sign of health within this party.”
Ahmed clarified that no political party is “unwaveringly democratic,” because they exist solely to gain power and win elections, and that the Republican Party behaved accordingly in this election cycle. “It drilled the economy as the No. 1 weakness, and the economy delivered a victory. That’s what parties are supposed to do.”
De Leon took a more class-based approach to understanding the election, saying that the vote showed that many working class Americans were dissatisfied with neoliberalism, the ideology that supports free market, capitalist economies while relying on government for such things a environmental protection and protection for the rights of racial and sexual minorities. That ideology had previously been held by both political parties, but under Trump the Republicans have veered away from such thinking, according to de Leon.
“Whether you find the Republican Party’s policy prescriptions to be reprehensible, racist, misogynistic, homophobic, and I do, they are nevertheless a break with neoliberalism,” he said. “For example, they’re against free trade. They want to slap tariffs on all Chinese-made goods, that is an anathema to neoliberalism.”
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Theodoridis, who also serves as a co-director of the UMass Amherst Poll, said a Republican victory in the election would ordinarily be expected given the shockwaves of high inflation over the past couple of years, and it was only controversial statements made by Trump that made the election seem close.
“If it weren’t for the fact that Donald Trump was on the ballot, and Donald Trump has said a lot of crazy things, we probably would have gone into this election thinking it was a really, really uphill climb for the Democrats,” Theodoridis said. “I don’t think it should be viewed as a vindication of Donald Trump’s anti-democratic views, his anti-democratic behavior, his attacks on the academy and the press.”
During the campaign and following the election, Trump and his backers, including Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, have vowed to drastically slash numerous departments in the federal government. Trump named Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to a “Department of Government Efficiency,” an informal group to advise him on how to restructure federal departments. Trump’s proposed Cabinet appointments, such as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general, also show how much his incoming administration prioritizes personal loyalty.
Ahmed said she saw such action as a “power consolidation” by Trump and that democracy should “brace for impact.”
“This is going to be a hit, and I think I am confident we will withstand it, but it is a hit,” she said. “There is going to be an attack on the state, there is going to be a purge.”
Theodoridis said polling has shown that such drastic reformation of federal agencies did not resonate with a majority of the public.
“I don’t think there’s any way you can with intellectual honesty say that there’s mandate for what the plans are here,” he said. “That doesn’t mean they’re not the plans, and I think it’s very clear they are the plans.”
De Leon said that if people against the Trump administration want to make a difference in the coming years, their best bet is to become more involved with labor affairs and unionizing efforts, rather than pinning their hopes on the Democratic Party.
“The number of working-class voters who are defecting from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party is becoming increasingly multiracial — this is not just a white working-class phenomenon,” he said. “If you don’t like what Trump represents, you need to be part of an institution that is going to offer a coherent ideological vision to those hateful politics, but also to mainstream, centrist neoliberalism.”
Ahmed said that advocates for democracy, rather than playing “hardball” with the Trump administration, should try an “anti-hardball approach” by looking for opportunities for bipartisan support.
Although the election was largely won on the economy, Ahmed said, most of Trump’s Cabinet picks and agendas have said little on that issue following the election.
“We’ve heard nothing about the economy,” Ahmed said. “I think Donald Trump’s about to find out that economics is really hard.”